Some Human Bias. Part 3.

Behind the advancement of science has been the general idea of hypothesis and the evidence there is for them being true. Generally scientists will hold that a hypothesis is true if it seams that it is almost certain or there is no contradictory evidence. Many opinions are justifiable with the evidence at hand but a theory really requires better analysis. So the aim of science and critical thinking is to get better information and analyse it till you have a good working hypothesis. This is not how the everyday human brain works. Having opinions you are willing to change if sufficient evidence becomes apparent is healthy. Getting the category wrong of fact and opinion or best guess is common. These traps are well known areas where people perceive things to be facts when they have not much information or evidence and have not analysed much at all. The trick is to collect evidence or look at others and analyse them to develop your own opinions not just to react only when you are under pressure. The difference between a fact and an approximation or ‘close’ varies in how important it may be but they are different and the distinction needs to be remembered and taken into account.

So one question could be the people who ‘succeed’ or the things that happen are they the best or lucky, or is it the only thing to happen or just what you have seen? One bias is Survivorship bias where the people who succeed may have each done a particular action. So it is a key to success yes? Well people who did not succeed may have done the same thing but you did not look at them. This is a biased sample where the winners may have succeeded for other reasons for instance luck and chance. Looking for more information is needed to say whether this action or occurrence is a key factor. Some athletes may win in spite of their preparation rather than because of it. Just blindly copying there methods may mislead. An example is copying the best in the world like a swimmer who actually has a body and physiology unique hence (s)he is the only one. For an average person their technique and training will not work but may get a trip to the hospital.

When you look at the champions of a sport you see the few. Take football in England a million players participate in a weekend but only the top few make millions. These few at the top stand out. These do inspire the next generation and power the emotions of the present generations, but they are the few as are the 3,000 American football candidates for the major leagues where less than 30 get contracts for an on average 2 year career. And then maybe one of those will get a Super bowl ring or MVP award. These rarities distract us from the real availabilities and many fall along the way. The danger is not having a back up plan for not making it. Just relying on the lottery ticket odds of being one of the most successful. Many barriers prevent this path. Knowing the true odds and having at least a back up plan are essential to over come the Availability bias where the rare stands out and we over estimate the frequency of occurrence.

On the whole we over estimate some likelihoods where we are impacted by some events more than others; the defeat in sport can lead to all sorts of emotional responses! The negative hits emotionally harder than the positive. From possible history the predator is more important then a meal. Criticism and results need to be put in perspective to avoid this Negative bias.

For supporters it’s a them and us situation and they surround themselves with like minded supporters they read other supporters blogs and avoid non supporters they tend to go towards people who will reinforce there beliefs/desires. Self questioning in these groups is usually absent and emotions can be high on match days. Star players too can prefer complements over criticism or any reasoned opinion. They may even believe their own hype as to their abilities and performance. When reality hits the ass kissers may have helped build a fantasy rather than any truth. It is hard to find feedback that may tell you what you need to hear and act on rather than what you want to hear. This is required to avoid the Confirmation bias.

A barrier to getting the needed, reasoned feedback is the Blind Spot bias where we believe we are less biased and more rational than we are and than others say we are.

These biases are easy traps to fall into. The main method is to somehow get real analysis. Some people are best leaving it to others and just doing as they are told. Some cannot do or understand the analysis or reasons so need a teacher or coach. The elite level cannot be experts on every aspect of the fitness, nutrition, skills etc. They may need a plan from another expert in some of the areas. Sorting out the right foods and nutrition and shopping and cooking and not cheating is a lot on top of many other aspects such as elite level physical preparation and skills and tactics elements. You need to receive information from a better source, as do we all.