Other Bias Traps and Logical Fallacies.

As well as bias people have perception issues where sometimes you gain much from rephrasing a question to get better answers. In the Swimmers body illusion the results can be due to selection aspects, born attributes that select the swimmer i.e. long arms and short legs etc. Not just the programme. Copying the programme may not help someone with a different body shape or make up. Of course it may be the training that creates the body too. All the top swimmers for instance train amazingly hard but some events favour certain body dimensions and strengths. A small change in distance or rules can shift the advantages to another athlete.

The order you receive information can lead you in certain directions the anchoring effect is where the first informational elements influence later information due to its precedence. A big number is relative to a small number if you say 1 then 10 can be a big number but if you say 1,000 then it is not. The first number sets up a situation for the second number. So some information is more influential if received first or from certain sources. The young often believe the judgement of their peer group over others. As I have previously mentioned the perceptions of ability and talent are massively influenced by early experiences. Another key time in sports is after a mistake the state of mind for the next action. It is easy to let the mistake take over your thinking and impact performance. One example is in sports like cricket or baseball if you miss one ball you need to have a routine that takes some seconds (15 or so) to refocus so you set up a routine to get your mind into the best state. This set up can use the anchoring effect to a better anchor for success rather than failure.

We find superstition too comfortable, understanding random events can be hard as our brains look for patterns and come up with hypothesis sometimes seeing patterns where they there are not. A common example is the Gamblers fallacy, here you get caught up in the idea that your luck will turn just because you think it should. Sequences of coin tosses are not connected so if a head has just occurred then it is not nature’s duty to produce a tail for balance. Now over a million tosses yes it will be around 50:50 with a fair coin, but vary rarely exactly 50:50. In a list of the sequence there will be many streaks of heads and others of tails but there will not be a head then a tail for the whole sequence (yes that could still actually happen but that’s getting complicated). Understanding what is random and what the odds (with some predictability) are are useful but don’t fall in to the trap of thinking that they are not random and that you have control or nature will balance things up. (freakonomics 17/11)

Fallacies are another set of flawed lines of reasoning and common to the human brain and sport (and the rest of life) is full of them. Examples include the Ad homonym fallacy where the words or actions are from a certain person and who the person is is used to suggest falsehood. The previously mentioned statistics of sports performance was discounted by sports people (and regularly still are) due to their (Geeks?) inability to perform at sports. Even though sport uses the phrase ‘playing the man not the ball’. Some times in competition you make indirect play against the opponent’s mind or an individual you see as a weaker link. This is a valid tactic but if it’s predicted then it may be bait for you. You attempt this and your opponent is ready to spring the trap. The key in terms of truth is to analyse the words not just rely on who says them. Beginners and guesses are sometimes correct so listen carefully and think about them. The defense ‘well they would say that wouldn’t they’ is a rhetorical tactic not a logical truth.

Other fallacy traps include not building up a false case that can be broken down like a Straw-man. Look at opposing arguments for what they say not make up what you think they say. Don’t think things too simply as black and white when lots of possibilities occur in between. Don’t relay on one occurrence or one experience look for more evidence not anecdotal one off occurrences. Also do not fool yourself by hitting the barn door then drawing a target on after words and say you hit the target (Cherry Picking). Being clear at what you are trying to do and the results after in relation to what you attempted to do. There are many more worth looking up!

You need to think before you act whenever possible. To aid thinking the study of Critical theory is a strong start here many fallacies are described and the logic of their inaccuracy can be studied and perhaps you may be able to avoid some!

The first part is analysis where you identify parts of a situation or information. Then you evaluate to see what is true or false and what the evidence actually is and may mean then you can make a reasoned case to make a further argument. This may have to be left to others but the key is for you own thinking's development. Try to be fair minded, active and informed, skeptical and independent. Many sports people become biased emotionally to a team or individual and let this distort their view and actions regardless of the evidence. This is in all elements of their preparation, and performance too. Actually seeking the truth or better ideas and methods rather than passively waiting for them to occur especially if you rely on others who are biased. It is hard and needs concentration to set up these habits but you need to be ready to change beliefs when the evidence points a different way. Sticking in the rose tinted past leaves many people behind the times. You do not set up haste but you have to be quick to acknowledge things as faults. Staying informed of all areas or finding other critical minds to keep up to date and give feedback keeps you going forward rather than settling for passed glories and slow (or fast) decline.

Critical thinking is finding out the facts or high probabilities and working with these to help decisions and actions. Finding the best methods and approaches is now easy as much has been published on what happens most and how things have been done. I find the ideas of principles and concepts that work in or reflect many situations are the most useful. There are less things to remember and help get to a generally good position before looking at details. Scientific knowledge has validity and reliability at it’s core. Proofs through reasoning, mathematics or very strong evidence power their usefulness. Many traditional approaches and ideas have stood the test of time and observing people who have done things already can be useful. Most people who get good at anything practice a lot and overcome obstacles. Delving deeper to find out the commonalities through many situations determining if the patterns are real or not. Not reinventing the wheel when it has been done many times before is a leg up (stand on the shoulders of giants). Avoiding the marketing that courts our fantasies of easy success. Watch out for deceptive occurrences (one offs) and people being deceptive for their own (or perceived) ends. Care for the distractions that appear all the time that may not deceive but pull of track your thinking and actions. Stick to relevant facts and actions and careful with assumptions.