Passion is no bad thing but letting the emotions run wild will lead to at least less success if not failure. Focusing on the result may mean you never get the result you want. Luckily we have both a large cortex and also many generations of people who have used this part of the brain to observe, think and analyse. So that real patterns rather than seeing what we want to see whether it’s there or not has been passed down. But there is a catch humans have the emotional part of the brain with quicker reactions and the emotions. This has it’s place but it can interfere or stop the rational bit doing it’s part without some rational thought. So here are some more traps we fall into that need thought in the cold light of day to avoid, not hope for in the middle of action.

a) Outcome bias

The result is used to justify or criticise decisions ignoring other factors and chance.

It is so easy to take a result on face value and have no real understanding of actual ability of performance. There are so many variables that can effect results. To just believe that the best will prevail, may be good for longer or multiple events but not for one off events. The glamour of the cup (knock out) can lead to all sorts of results that only represents that game or event, not necessarily giving a clue to future or other events. Sometimes trophies are won by the only one to turn up, or by the son of the organiser. At the elite levels injury, refereeing and many other factors can push the result a long way let alone affecting the small differences between closely matched opponents. Results do count of course but must be put in context, not to look for excuses but real factors. The long term approach is to look for steady improvement and hitting smaller targets which if met should lead to better performance and larger results. As previously mentioned the beginner will need an experienced, objective eye for this. Even the best will need help to get passed the mist that emotion and action can produce. In action adrenaline is effecting the brain and perception as can many other factors. There is a need to get support and/or learn yourself to work out the real or imaginary.

b) Overconfidence bias

Common with beginners with the difference from what is known and what thought of as known or as knowledge

Here is the first and a foundational situation where misunderstanding can occur. A coach or organiser needs to set up events, training and the people to get a simpler or explained situation. Early wins or losses can guide perceptions and beliefs to learned helplessness or over confidence. Recognition that one is a beginner is needed to appreciate the reality of a success (and a failure). For overconfidence from too easy a task will mislead. An overview of progression is useful but can also be daunting.

c) Risk compensation or Peltzman effect.

We adjust our behaviour in relation to the perceived risk. Protective equipment causes a change in behaviour where we put it on and then go crazy making it more likely to have accidents maybe even increasing risks. The risk compensation bias is observed in contact sports like rugby and ice hockey. New rules for player action have had to be implemented only after it was observed that players acted more violently with each other when they had their protective equipment on. Some safe conditions encourage change of technique and strategy. This needs some control as when the equipment is removed people may make dangerous choices. A historic example is boxing where head punches can easily break the hand. Gloves originally were to protect the hand for training and for posh people who fell for the glamour and wanted to share it. Later head protection has been found to increase head trauma with increased shaking of the brain.

d) Halo Bias

Seeing a person who shows ability in one thing to be good at more or every thing. The classic mistake made is that the best players will make the best coaches. People see a person and perceive greater capabilities than they can actually see evidence of. When this distorted perception later sees failure then an exaggerated presumption of negative traits may happen. We may also misjudge people based on race, size or appearance. People who are attractive are presumed to be more capable as do those that ‘look right’. We see one thing and presume more things as part of a stereotype or idea of how things are.

So make a list of the most successful coaches and see how many performed themselves at the very top. A few years ago a statistician analysed American sports and debunked a number of myths of which players produced the best for a team, now many teams use the data to select players. The nerd was ignored for well forever till someone with money used the results and got a better performing team. We all really need that outside view above the emotional cloud of perception, where these bias traps are best avoided.

Again actual observation, thought and analyse with explanation needs to be included to lesson these biases. Responding to actual events and opposition rather than guessed ideas of events and the opposition.

Some Human Bias Part 1

Sometimes beauty is in purity and precision. Sports can offer this. The clear distinction between success and failure, or time, or height. Sports based on fitness to the extreme mostly show the fastest or highest. Actually what really happens is the differences between first place and last can be minute. Every difference has impact and small differences can be the difference between first and last. Much care has to be taken to distinguish the real differences in performance. So many variables exist and the result quite often tells you little apart from a comparison of a sum of differences. Team sports can have more obvious variables that contribute to performance and results. The problem comes where a good result can come from a poor performance and a good performance can have a poor result. Analysis is needed but there are many pitfalls. Of course safe play and experimentation is to be encouraged, but some thought is useful too.

I have talked about many attributions that people have that are not what they believe them to be. Talent is a small part of results and success when compared to effort and preparation. Perception for many is the other way round. People believe they have or do not have talent and may act based on the perceptions. ‘Talented’ people do not practice because they think they will win naturally and people who are ‘untalented’ stop participating. Both groups have inadequate information to make a judgement close to reality.

The common attribution aspect (attribution theory) is that people tend to attribute success to themselves and failure to outside factors (Self serving bias). Now both situations are effected by inside and outside. Two perspectives are needed one is what really happened, this is not something humans can get perfect, only improve their understanding and actions. Understanding controllable factors and uncontrollable or factors outside of your control. If you let factors outside of your control effect you too much (especially emotionally) it is a waste as you can do nothing about it. This leads to the second point where you need to find the best approach for you to get what you want. Belief that you can make it is important, but a reality check to choose your goals with care is needed. This is where coaches are most needed having a more objective idea of what is possible and realistic and then helping them achieve their goal. Personal development needs expansion of knowledge of reality of your environment, yourself and others. Acknowledge factors you cannot effect and see if what you can do to mitigate their effects, but the focus must be on positively improving yourself in areas you can effect to improve yourself and performance. Use knowledge not guess work followed with believing you did not just guess. Hard work on appropriate tasks is more effective than talent or guessing.

The Dunning-Kruger effect is another common misjudgement when judging your own abilities and performance you think your better than you are mainly because you do not know. Although it may protect the ego it gets in the way of analysis and real data on performance, stopping reasoned truth finding so knowing how to improve cannot happen. It may also link to the ‘experts’ on the sidelines and pubs. This is the stage where a coach and guidance is needed. Beginners; children and adults attempt skills beyond them where they attempt advanced skills they have seen off the TV without the basic skill levels and tactics and with much lower odds of success. Experts have the opposite problem as they understand better what they cannot do and underestimate what they can do (imposter syndrome). It is really difficult to assess your own ability and those that get a good expert (outside) opinion stand the best chance. Either trusting them or getting a personal education to improve these abilities. Understanding others ability can be distorted but sometimes easier. When you are completely destroyed by a better performer it appears clear, but here there may be other factors causing an unbalanced situation. People with Autism are good at being precise relative to absolutes but ‘relative to others’ becomes a problem. Some experts get stuck in the bubble around higher level performers which is a high standard not understanding the wider picture.

More is better is a regular trap where it worked once so it will work again. Not spotting the changed circumstances. Winning at beginner level is different to intermediate and different again at expert level. Getting lucky can win at lower skill levels but against higher performers needs a lot more than luck. Many find It hard to realise that their methods no longer (or have never) worked and need to change to progress. The Sunk Cost fallacy is where it is hard to give up once you have invested a lot of time, money and effort but then when it is not working need to change. Just trying the same thing over and over again is a sign of madness especially when expecting a different result. Many times success is a big barrier to future success, when false confidence is gained by a good result, where factors such as opponent illness or absence means less people to beat. The vagaries of competition can distort perceptions of performance and abilities.

A big problem for the ego is loss aversion where people give more value to avoiding loss. The fear of this can paralyse action or steer action to a safe position. Nobody wins all the time, loss is a key part of progress when approached well. Loss is where you can really learn where the lesson is often much clearer than the lessons of victory or success. By being too careful we often miss lessons and slow or stop our progress. Taking sufficient risk for some losses and failure. A realistic analysis of non success is needed to make success more likely in the future. This is an approach that needs for some to be a course of education. Others have no problem. Confidence and perceptions of others have big effects and supportive environments are needed. You must play the long term game and play the odds to get long term results. The end result needs to be moved towards and obstacles seen as problems to solve, not the end of the world. The white belt does not want to lose but if they are going to be black belt in few years and much better, a small loss now is nothing. Others are risk takers who gamble but not with good odds they need to learn true odds and the benefits and costs along the way.

The standard issue at all levels is the failure of analysis. We are biased and make mistakes because of it. In some areas of life we have been replaced by machines with only the programmers and operators bias.

The Right Amount Not Too Much and Not Too Little. Then do it Right!

It is close to the Pareto principle or 80/20 rule that the distribution of many things follow a pattern where there is a majority and a minority. In exercise it is clear where 90% do not exercise sufficiently for good health and 90% of those that do exercise do it so bad they again are not in good health! It is a similar pattern in many areas in health and other behaviours. The problem is when the better part is done by the minority.

A basic for health is to be active, where many activities of life have been superseded including work and transport and replaced by inactivity tasks instead. One task for society is to increase activity levels in general. Exercise is not the only means to do this but a good one with many lessons for other activities. A classic exerciser’s error is to do too much, whether too many different things or too much of one thing. Over-training has got some to hospital, many to stop training, many injuries and much under-performance. They do so much they achieve less. Just as a baby over reaches as they learn about themselves and their environment, children and adults over reach and experience the consequences.

So once a sensible amount of activity is achieved (by increasing or decreasing) then the quality of exercise needs to be addressed. Doing exercise so that it is healthy and performance enhancing. Most sports and activities have their dangers. Swimming is a good exercise method and life skill. In the USA more people die in backyard swimming pools than from guns! Swimming rarely injures or kills but safety of the apparatus is key. Running is the simplest and most common method and yet surveys constantly find injury rates above 50% and up to 90% (I would suggest the high end as many will not run for a year as injury stops them running.). Yes more than half of people who run get injured running in any year. Surveys of Martial arts students have injury rates of 4 a year, now if the training is to cope with violence then the likelihood of violence needs to be assessed. In the UK the chance of violent crime is about once in every 120 years. Is it acceptable to get injured 4 times a year for a 1 in 120 year event. In team sports injury rates usually contain a third of injuries due to foul play, where someone is not playing to the rules and someone is not keeping the games within the rules and coaches and parents may also encourage or not enforce the safety rules. Many sports are now and will be increasingly under pressure concerning head injuries. Many long term implications from chronic injury in contact sports as well as immediate risk in major immediate injuries will raise concerns. Finding a balance between activity and risk rather than ban or restrict to unhealthy levels needs consideration. In areas where cycle helmets are compulsory the cycling rates drop comparing cycle head injury rates and Heart attack rates need to be balanced.

Reducing injury and increasing participation rates are essential to make exercise and sport healthy. Right at the beginning with children correct technique and movement patterns need to be ingrained. Kelly Starrett starts with the squat for helping adults to avoid injury (health) and increase performance (optimal). First he gets you to see the foot position – line the knees with the foot in the correct position not duck feet (no ducks are not actually that stupid but the name sticks). The feet positions affect the knees which carry on up the chain effecting and injuring everywhere. The basic movement patterns are targeted as the squat will help in many movements in many sports and activities. The other joints need to be in position for every movement. These need to be taught and encouraged early so that problems do not appear later. Many runners do this they have the feet in a bad position and have repeated forces shocking up the body till it ‘cana take any more’. At the other end the head pulls the body out of position with the same chained effects. Shoulder position for over head and all joints need to be aligned. How this is learned either encouragement or biomechanics or allowing chi or prana to flow does not matter.

The best at anything are the best at the basics. Special forces solders are the best at basic soldering. The highest maths prodigies get their basic maths right. Exercise is the same doing the most important things every day is a good approach but also with good technique. Many attempt to train the advanced moves and skills without good basics and errors can be catastrophic. The general pattern is that practising the basics may not be the most excising but as you get fewer injuries you train more and get to higher levels. The enjoyment of improved abilities and less pain over entertaining fantasy is good when you experience it and feel the benefits.

Many people rush their training trying to achieve super human abilities too quickly. The body responds to overload but at it’s own pace the tissues (including the brain) develop at the pace they will, not to an imagined pace. Finding the right amount of training and then doing it will develop physical abilities and skills consistently. Being aware of the body and when you can do some more or must slow down will get better results in the long term and I mean longer than a few weeks. The best have 10 years training with their talent so that’s how long it takes for those levels. Correct training is also the correct methods for you purpose or goals.

Discovering what is enough is an achievement. For the Olympics a champion needs to qualify, and then meet the needs of the competition. This may be just being in the top 2 in the rounds and then first in the final. Finishing first every time is not required. In fact finishing first or over dominating an opponent may use too much energy making the later rounds too hard. A similar pattern is in flexibility where being too flexible can lead to joint instability. Too much time developing strength or any one element may get in the way of achieving whats needed in other elements. A questions is: Do I need to be more flexible? The answer may well be yes, or not at the moment or no. Time may be needed for the need to be there or for the body to adapt. Too early can lead to problems as well as too late.

These examples of balance of trying to do the right amount at the right time is a complicated skill of understanding let alone doing. It is true in the whole of life as in sport where over emphasis of one element or of the now can harm future performance levels. Daley Thompson used the motivation of today is a day off so if I train a small session I will have an advantage over my great rival. Then this grows to be well my rival will train today and therefore I will train twice. This mission creep is an easy trap, even Olympic greats fall for it. It hard to see that the 2 time Olympic gold medalist could of done better. Others do not get to that level before too much ends dreams. So work out your needs and plan to learn the right way to prepare and the right amount that can be sustained for the time you need to do it. Get the basics correct before you move on to the advanced elements how ever cool they look. For the vast majority exercise will basically be the basics performed well, to gain health, pain free and comfortable movement and realise some potential. Paving the way to other things in life.

Sport and Exercise for the Long Term.

In the game of football it is easy and common to play head down looking at what your feet and the ball are doing. The obvious disadvantage of this is not knowing where you are going to pass as your not looking up and seeing the rest of the game. Football is a team game and passing is the key team skill for success. This short term head down approach is common not just in children. In the midst of action and before, looking up and becoming aware of the next best move will lead to better performance over the long term. For people who never look up they just never know the possibilities.

Short term thinking and tactics are important and essential, but over dependence on them leads to lower performance over all and loss. Playing against head down players is easy if you have your head up and think. They become predictable even when they do not know they are as they are busy and unaware. It is a natural prejudice to not work for the long term, and the addiction of adrenaline and crisis distracts from awareness of opportunity. Short term is survival and provides short cuts away from stress. It does not though avoid future stress. Sport and exercise is no different than the rest of life where cognitive biases affect thinking and action. The emotions drive short term decisions and actions. They are traps of human minds (and all animal) but we have the ability (well some of us) to think ahead and plan. In Britain we are proud of the ‘Dunkirk spirit’ where the nations service men where supported by civilians in the hour of need. What this pride (emotion) misses is the idea of avoiding the Dunkirk type situation in the first place and achieving goals without digging deep unnecessarily. Long term thinking may aim for an easy effective life which is a bit theoretical, but it can make things easier leaving energy and time for more advanced goals.

There are many cognitive biases that people (including professionals) regularly fall pray too. Avoidance has to be actively pursued. Short term thinking and immediate desire do not come up with the goods especially if there is an opponent who has thought things through, or mother nature who can not be cheated.

As we do not analyse before, during or after most of the time we use other methods that we may think and say are analysis but are not. Attempting to become aware of what is really happening and what can actually happen is easily missed.

First is time. We want things now. Just as we buy things when we are tricked (even though we know it is probably a trap) into free offers or the middle priced offer (Yes! the expensive one is listed so we will buy the middle offer) and availability traps (no we do not have that one but we have this other one right now). One misjudgement easily made is Hyperbolic discounting where we take less now rather than waiting for more later. The process is good in a survival situation but limiting for development in the long term as we get less. This Temporal proximity is now not later. This delayed gratification ability is more common when children are not in stressful (survival) situations a lot, children need times of no stress to develop the skills of delaying for a better deal later.

In sport it is the drive for goal or the target even though the opponent is fully defending it. The longer term method is to keep good positions until there is a better opportunity. Professional sports change the rules to reduce this as it is not as entertaining. But it is more effective. Waiting or creating opportunities can be approached in many ways and simple methods often beat amateurs however hard they scramble head down.

Another disadvantage to the head down scrambling, battling approach is how physically and mentally draining and damaging it is. Constantly over stretching and operating in extreme positions means more energy sapping emotion and physical injuries from putting the body in positions it works badly. Finding the limits of muscle, ligaments and bones. Injuries reduce performance at the time but also reduce the training and preparation that can be done as well as permanent incapacity. Also resultant energy levels are down for the next game putting you at a disadvantage.

The short term exercise patterns have the same injury and energy risks and limiting effects, reducing actual performance and attainment. To stay healthy or attain high level standards takes years of preparation. Just playing has the injury and energy risk. Too hard a session effects the next session. The biological limit is how fast the body can adapt to what it is subjected too. If you over-train then it will not keep up and will break down. To get from a child to professional standards takes years. Rushing some parts will slow the progress down and could easily lead to an injury that ends the dream. A problem is some athletes do survive poorly managed programmes which covers up the actual potential they had and how much more could have achieved. The muscles take about 90 days to completely change cells. Doing an exercise for 10 days and then changing to a different exercise will not produce much long term effect. Much gains are lost with de-training where the body does not maintain abilities when other needs are felt. Long term chest strength developed with press ups would progress from simply getting to do a press up correctly and then training a progression (slightly harder exercise) for 6 - 8 weeks before changing to the next progression if the target performance has been achieved. Quicker progress will lead to a plateau in improvement and probably a stop in trying with disappointment. A coach would need with experience (theirs and others) to time the change to the next progression. Connective tissues take longer to replace (about 210 days) so needs longer to adapt to the strain (particularly resistance training) and can not be left behind when developing faster changing muscles. Bones do change as well at around 2 years. Developing stronger bones to withstand the stress of elite performance (and training) takes many years as of course does healing from injury. Take the time in preparation rather than not achieving or the common achievement of major injury. Mother nature can not be cheated. Steroids can accelerate the muscles but leave the connective tissue behind.

Tai chi has been called ‘patience boxing’ as the best is the one with the most patience. Some things just take how long they take. The long term plan needs this to be included, not buying the secret short cut as the secret is there is no short cut to higher levels.